Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 2.316857 2.451949 2.599204 2.773357 2.976089 3.207841 3.497805
2025-10-19 2.167875 2.335093 2.525219 2.761605 3.054228 3.414748 3.911396
2025-10-26 2.075185 2.262821 2.482646 2.766309 3.134821 3.618381 4.346529
2025-11-02 1.975314 2.170413 2.403347 2.711296 3.124681 3.692168 4.607677
2025-11-09 1.908708 2.111785 2.358482 2.692131 3.154464 3.818848 4.974114
2025-11-16 1.853899 2.063252 2.321392 2.677561 3.185481 3.947601 5.377771
2025-11-23 1.804270 2.017854 2.284517 2.658768 3.206067 4.060252 5.787563
2025-11-30 1.775189 1.996371 2.276489 2.677510 3.281887 4.272713 6.490722
2025-12-07 1.710559 1.926486 2.200981 2.596041 3.196329 4.194117 6.496615
2025-12-14 1.673906 1.891242 2.169832 2.575547 3.203515 4.281013 6.957386
2025-12-21 1.635492 1.852223 2.131760 2.542486 3.187244 4.321494 7.318167
2025-12-28 1.629226 1.854771 2.149686 2.591734 3.308523 4.646990 8.815800
2026-01-04 1.628513 1.865468 2.180427 2.664199 3.481580 5.136521 11.935510
2026-01-11 1.601156 1.839304 2.158241 2.653743 3.507659 5.309339 14.148643
2026-01-18 1.580327 1.821124 2.146355 2.658259 3.560991 5.563631 18.450399
2026-01-25 1.544165 1.780990 2.101601 2.608052 3.506954 5.530231 19.850829
2026-02-01 1.519767 1.756247 2.078072 2.590594 3.513786 5.663372 25.583223
2026-02-08 1.497937 1.734388 2.057872 2.577309 3.527273 5.820464 37.969768
2026-02-15 1.476116 1.711943 2.036022 2.560116 3.531328 5.953034 72.689428
2026-02-22 1.465236 1.704234 2.035267 2.577374 3.606184 6.333323 NaN
2026-03-01 1.429195 1.660768 1.980701 2.502500 3.485087 6.037106 NaN
2026-03-08 1.409987 1.640436 1.959875 2.483644 3.480022 6.137934 NaN
2026-03-15 1.388345 1.616278 1.932775 2.453171 3.448461 6.141940 NaN